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  • Spillover would be by PD so China will not get same number of EB2 numbers as India. India has many more old applications then China.

    I assume they move both the countries PD to the same year/month if the spill over happens. Atleast in the past, it would be interesting to see how they move now.

    Even in all the scenarios it is less likely to go in to 2007, if not beyond June 2006.





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  • See this post by Nixstor:
    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=254275#post254275

    If you ignore the VB predictions in the post, the key thing to note is that USCIS and DOS are in constant touch on a weekly basis after the July 07 fiasco. They know exactly the demand and usage rates.

    This leads me to one of the following two conclusions:
    Either USCIS has intimated to DOS that it can process only X number of cases in the next two months and visas remaining are more than that which is why DOS pushed the dates forward so that consular posts can also maximize usage OR

    The numbers remaining are very large for a variety of reasons (category and FB spill over) and USCIS has agreed to process at least a majority if not all the cases within a certain priority date - probably Jun 2006. Based on that DOS agreed to move the PD to June 2006 after also factoring in the CP usage.

    Obviously the latter is better for us - but it could be the former as well.

    See my asumptions in this thread what i said about USCIS and DOS are working closelly.





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  • I still fail to see how country caps on Employment Based immigration serve the purpose of diversity. Look, people from India/China with H1B visas and pending AOS applications are already here, right? They are here and will be here regardless of whether they get GCs now or after 10 years. Many of them bought houses, have families, American born kids. How making them wait for years is gonna serve the purpose of diversity? You think if an Indian guy will be using AC21/EAD for years, going to finger printing every year, going through secondary security check on airports, in time he is gonna evolve into something less Indian? It's gonna be the same people but with different documents in their pockets.

    For diversity purposes there is lottery, and the purpose of that lottery is exactly that - the diversity. Also, if the government wants diversity, they should have immigration program like Canada has. Where people are issued permanent residency BEFORE coming to the country and spending years working for that country.


    bestia, the people here keep saying "i don't see the reasoning in x, then x must be wrong and should change"
    u believe US intended diversity in DV lottery only and by mistake put it in DV, FB and EB.. you are entitled to your opinion, but good luck getting someone to take u seriosly with this argument
    again..i only mentioned race when people kept saying we (certainly their race) are better and brighter, outside correcting that context i would never have discussed it this way.
    peace.. have a soccer game now.. c u later





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  • I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

    Making following assumption

    15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
    12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
    EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


    EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
    Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
    Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
    Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
    Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
    Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
    Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
    Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007

    I would be very happy if your predictions come true. But it appears you have not taken into consideration of the fact that thousands of EB3 might move over to Eb2.





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  • Absolutely. To amway guys:- No means NO/NOT INTERESTED.. PERIOD.. I don't care whether you were flipping burgers or dream to become a millionaire. Do it yourself . Just don't harass people. Next time you will be arrested if you harass people.



    Kushal,
    This whole conversation was not intended to be personal and if it hurt you in any way then we all apologize ,most of the people here might be in or against amway/quixter but they are all more pissed of by the way they are harassed by so called IBO's with the way they treat their prospective clients.
    Why not just move on if somebody says no or gives a excuse to the IBO's, if anybody does
    really feel interested they will ultimately come back to you guys but why harass them with multiple calls and personal visits.

    Note - I would be intersted to see your tax returns :-) email me please since you agreed to.





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  • But real world does not work like this. If you are not aware Gandhiji passed away/ assinated in 1948. this is 2009.

    Thanks Dude! .. Gandhiji never died and ever will... the day you realize that there would be real solutions to ethinical/lingustic/religious descriminations/issues :)





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  • One consideration is that majority of Indians coming to US have a plan to leave within a certain time period or after a certain goal saving whatever amount...
    I had that kind of goal too...But after 5-6 years the considerations change....

    Also all arguments came out of UnitedNations unfortunately are already present and deep seated in a very large %age of our compatriots....That is the main reason behind the less mobilization......

    Also the situations are changing in homeland...The value of a green card had dropped in the eyes of a large number of people....This situation of people lining up for green cards would change in a few years...especially if the economic growth keeps the tempo it has....

    I don't know the context of the above explaination. It is no explanation for the following (I have truck loads of them) which is posted nearly once/day. Many such opinions may not be posted.

    Forget contributions - find other ways to survive......

    A lot of people, including me have lost faith in IV. They are not going to pay. We don't know what IV is working on and we don't believe it can do anything. The sooner IV accepts it, the better. I have seen this personally in talking to people and you can see the evidence with less than 300 people contributing. IV needs to produce results first.


    And today, some of our members, when they call us, block their caller ID. God knows what they are afraid of.





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  • There are few people here trying to mislead the biggest problem. When the Indians support SL Tamils, it is not just ethnic affinity, it is also based on our country's own interest. If India could not handle a country like SL, then what else we can do. I dont like the way India handling this situation, completely ignoring the deaths of thousands of innocent people. Even today, there was bombing on the hospital. It has become common now to bomb schools and hospitals and trying to justify that.

    I still find it hard to equate a person death > tens of 1000's of innocent people death.
    But still wanting for more deaths. India should step in and stop this genocide. It is shame on us to turn our face and watching it.





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  • In the absence (to our knowledge) of USCIS URL, it is not possoble to say that dates can not retrogress in the middle of a month. For example, USCIS has no rule of time period between switching jobs. This means they can do whatever they feel like.

    I am saying that 2007 GCs can get exhausted at any time independent of I-485s received/approved.

    Hi Macaca;

    This is taken from the July 2000 VB:

    HOW THE SYSTEM OPERATES
    At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office receives a report from each immigrant visa processing post listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to numerical limitation.
    Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability/preference/priority date. No names are reported. During the first week of each month, this documentarily qualified demand is tabulated.
    VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations which are specified by the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) into twelve monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants reported to VO, and the expected INS demand for numbers, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. This allows for the determination of the monthly cut-off dates, and the allotment of numbers for reported applicants who have priority dates within the newly established cut-off dates.
    If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "current."

    From this it is very clear that the number of Visas available for the rest of the FY 07 is enough to accept as many applications as can be approved in those 3 months(July, Aug and Sep).





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  • There is a real truth and history. thats why the whole world is crying for Ceasefire and Diplomacy!!!

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8022190.stm
    Extract from the news
    ----------------------------
    Ceasefire pressure
    Mr Bildt told the BBC: "They have said I am not welcome at this particular period of time - they were saying that they can't handle too many people.
    "There must be some sort of reason but it has to be a rather odd one."
    Mr Bildt said he was recalling the Swedish ambassador in Sri Lanka for consultation, adding that Sri Lanka did "not seem to be too interested" in its relationship with Sweden at the moment.
    ----------------------------

    dude i have said civilians in all wor/terrorism zones need to be supported. Please read my posts.





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  • I am simply stumped at the level of comprehension of the folks right here. Let me summarize my views as points and hopefully I will get through to you guys

    1. My mention of BITS was not to prove that I was the best and the brightest. It was to prove that my education was NOT subsidized by the govt of India directly or indirectly. Remember passing out of any university doesnt confer the title of the best and the brightest. Unseenguy - If you have kicked the ass of IITians, bitsians etc then consider yourselves genuine. Why this unnecessary trip down "Not confident about myself lane" ?

    2. My mention of MSFT was again not to prove that I am part of the best and rightest. It was to prove that I came here not with the value proposition of low costs but with the value proposition of hardwork and some talent. I did not compromise on my pay or did replace any native employee. Oh BTW I left MSFT in 2000

    3. My mention of the 3 layoffs and my journey was to inform you guys that whatever is happening now is similar to whatever happened in 2001. I wanted to calm down the nerves of the genuine people. Without reading and comprehending the posts, I get responses like that I was an illegal. Remember I was taken back in for 2 days, 485/AP/EAD applied and my jobless days were with my EAD in hand.

    4. One of the reasons, I am against outsourcing companies is that they dump low wage workers. If you guys are aware, every country, including India and US, has anti dumping laws to protect local industries. I am not against offshoring or outsourcing but I am against dumping. Some posters have questioned how I would be affected by all this if I were the among the best and the brightest ? Valid question to a good extent. If you realize that as you age your speed and dexterity at which one adopts newer skills start waning. How long do you think that upgrading skills in a single industry would be possible when you are going to be constantly competing with walmart style options ?

    For now I have chosen to enroll myself in an MBA program and I am hoping that my skills wouldn't be diluted. Think about going to school at age 35 with the responsibility of family and kid. This is my last ditch effort in upgrading my skills because it involves a substantial ownpayment. I am not sure about you guys but a 100K investment for school now is huge for me. The big question is, I am able to pull up my last bit of energy to upgrade now but will it be possible 5 years now if these outsourcing companies starting dumping low cost MBAs ? This is what I meant by my quality of life being impacted. If you guys think that you wouldnt go through the same scenario, then you need some serious retrospection.

    One last thing I would like to point out the inherent contradiction that the current prospective immigrants are facing today. GC is a process that is there to fill in the lack of skills in the US. However with unemployment running close to 10%, the question arises as to whether to train local populace for these skills. There are just 2 exits out of this contradiction

    1. Bring in low cost labor to fulfill this shortage and avoid local training costs
    2. Expand on a new idea. Green seems to be the buzzword today.

    In my opinion, option 1 is lose lose situation for all including the actual foreign employee who provides the services at a low cost. It is the outsourcing company for sure and probably the hiring company that may benefit. The society as a whole loses. Option 2 is an organic option but is laen with the dangers of delays in take off and boom and bust cycles. This is exactly the reason why I suggested that we cut these outsourcing cs from dumping bodies here. I hope I have clarified my opinions lucidly and hopefully look forward to a mature discussion as opposed to name calling, affronts etc.


    look man wether anyone likes it or not fact is that jobs are going to two countries with a billion dollar plus population ... they are hardworking and they are verrrrrrrryyyyy hungry.... so even if you stop immigrants alltogether from coming to this country .. it does not matter. The jobs will simply go there (to China and India). After all the companies exist to serve their shareholders and not their employees and the simplest way to maximize profit is to cut cost. Simple!!! the outsourcing offshoring train has just started and there is no stopping it.

    You may argue to some extent that the complexity of your job will provide your protection but the fact is management is always scared off complex functions that require expensive resources (i.e human beings) .. management will always want to break down your job to lowest common denominator so that it can be shipped or done at lower cost. For that they will be willing to go all the way - including changing technology , buying into marketing BS or spending millions of dollars.

    Also if the american market dies is that going to be a very big deal ? not anymore .. the domestic market of both India and China is getting bigger everyday .. the fire has been lit and the horse has been left out of the stable .. its at a point of no return.

    So brace for the change because the times are a changing...





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  • Friend, as advised (?) by you, I read your other posts in this thread, I could not find the source but I found what you are saying to others.

    “This whole thread is speculation

    Try to think logically

    You should read the INA law clearly.

    But if this speculation makes you happy, enjoy!”

    You can be very smart of yourself, but don’t think others are idiots and fools. It is up to you agree or disagree with others opinion, but don’t show your "others don't know anything" attitude (“try to think logically”, “read INA law clearly”, “everybody is speculating”) here.


    Read my earlier posts for source. Ofcourse it is speculation if you are thinking EB2 will be current in one year :) I would be more than happy if USCIS did that, but try to think logically than expecting miracles to happen. As you said, its a wait-n-watch for results.





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  • Guys.. can one of you please suggest a good Canadian PR processing company? I keep getting mails from cr@protechimmigration.com. Is Protech good?

    Would really appreciate a reply.

    Maple International is very good if you are in the west





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  • 85 and counting...

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    and counting...





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  • can you share the phone number and address of that Away family?:) May be for a change lot of people from this thread may want to meet this Away person. :rolleyes:


    Met this dude once in a grocery store, he and his hot wife gave me the amway speil. I said listen buddy give me a time to visit your house and number. I called him and we played phone tag, one day I called and his wife picked up, i ASKED IF i could come, she was hesitant and said he was out of state for a conference but I convinced her that it's ok. When I arrived I brought a bottle of wine and then she was all over me in 5 mins. Sigh what a wonderful time....





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  • Further division is not good.

    I was on record that DOS/USCIS misallocated visas in 2005. India received much more in eb3 then what they were entitled to. In fact, India, China, Mexico and Phillipines should have not gone over their 7% as a whole of the 250,000 greencards available. Because of this; dos/uscis learned their lesson and started to follow the law appropriately.

    I did say that if in 2006 any country went above their limit of 7% then it would cause a lawsuit which I would be a part of. However, there would be some negative outcomes from it. UScIS/DOS behaviour could only change going forward. They could revoke the greencards issued in 2005 for people who went over the 7% limit (uscis has upto 5 years to rescind greencard if approved by mistake) but they would not get re-allocated because there is no carryover from one year to the next in the current law. Only outcome would be to change it going forward. As I've said in the past; people were spoiled at the laziness of DOS/USCIS. Retrogression and the visa allocation should have happened a long time ago.

    Again wrong information by you and trying to hide background or historical information. Either USDOS/USCIS has not mismanaged the numbers in 2005. Claiming India and China was given more than they entitled to is wrong . They (DOS) did everything right till 2005. Now only they are violating. One has to study the historical issues before 1999. Before 1999, both India and China (both EB2 and EB3) were retrogressed heavily and backlogged. However ROW was current in all EB catagories. There was no retrogression in ROW. It was always current before 1999.

    For example, here is March 1999 VB

    All Charge-
    ability Areas CHINA-
    Except Those mainland
    Listed born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
    Employment-
    Based

    1st C 22JAN98 C C C

    2nd C 08SEP96 08SEP97 C C

    3rd C 01JAN95 08FEB96 C C



    As a part of AC21 act in 2000, the unused numbers (about 100,000) were recaptured to eliminate the backlogs in EB categories. The reason was this recapture to remove retrogression in India and China, as because that was only two countries backlogged at that point.

    After that ac21 law, there were additional 100,000 visas available apart from 140,000 visas every year. DOS has given 100,000 additional visas to USCIS in 2000 itself to consume it. Because of USCIS slowness/inefficiency in processing 485s between 1999 and 2004, they even did not have processed the yearly quota. Therefore the recaptured visas were remain unused for 5 years because of USCIS inefficiency. Therefore, at some point, it has to be consumed. Therefore USCIS did backlog elimination drive in 2005 (6 months processing of 485s ) to use all the recaptured visas. The original intension to remove backlogs in India and China. That was done by USCIS. USCIS can not hold that recaptured numbers for ever (by imposing 7% limit in India and China) how the future demands will be in EB3-ROW. Far example, if ROW demands 200,000 EB3 visas in year 2020, USCIS/DOS can not hold that AC21 numbers (that were recaptured in 2000) for ROW to be consumed in 2020, by imposing 7% limit. No one can anticipate future demands.

    Theoretically speaking those numbers belongs (AC21 recaptured numbers came only from EB1 and EB2 pool) belongs to EB1 and EB2 category. EB3 never gave any unused numbers in previous years. Ideally speaking, those numbers should have been issued to EB2 category first to eliminate backlogs in EB2 then only to EB3 ROW. Infact, all the ac21 numbers were used to eliminate retro in EB3 only. In 2005 they issed only 44,000 EB2 compare to about 150,000 visas in EB3. This is big injustice to EB2 India and China.

    Bottom line is EB3-ROW is enjoying with the expense of EB2 India and China.





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  • Technically I can change my country of citizenship any number of times in my life (cannot, if struck like this GC limbo) or even religion but I cannot change my ethnicity even once because I'm born into it.

    I agree Sri Lanka is a sovereign country but why did India poke its nose on the pre-1971 Pakistan and created a new country Bangladesh. Is there a different standard for different people with the Indian govt policies?

    Even If I had not got the opportunity to come this great nation United States of America, land of free and country of brave, I would have done whatever I could in India to help the beleaguered Sri Lankan Tamils and protested against the policies of Govt of India toward this issue.

    I�m upfront about showing my resentment towards my country of birth and I �don�t show false patriotism/nationalism towards India like other Pseudo-Nationalists, who internally betray India at any moment and ready to change their nationality at the next opportunity but externally portray that they are the guardian of India and it is their soul. I currently live in a country, where even burning the national flag is considered a form of protest, if someone thinks that expressing resentment to India or protesting against her policy is unpatriotic, grow up guys.

    You can say whatever you want and judge me in your point of view, I�m not going to argue about it because you don�t live a life of a Indian Tamil with hands tied of being called a terrorist, when you support Sri Lankan Tamil cause, and you cannot understand the relationship we (Tamils from India) have with the Sri Lankan Tamils, besides the people (including small babies and even some in the womb), who are getting killed in Sri Lanka by the Sri Lankan government are not your kith and kin.

    �.. If you find an issue, work on rectifying it if you have the guts. Don't give dramatic statements like " I too carry the Indian passport with shame" �.

    You don�t know me, and you don�t know what positive things me and my family has done and doing to the people of India, particularly to the farming community and you don�t know what I�m doing to rectifying issues (whatever I�m working on)�..you should be careful when making these kind of statements on person you don�t know anything about except one comment on this thread.


    Eventhough from a humanitarian point of view, I feel UPA should work with Srilankan government to work out peace. However it is not because the people being killed are Tamilians , who speak the same language as people from my neighbouring state.

    I feel sorry for all the civilians who got killed in Iraq, same way.

    Now you can't wait to "relinquish" the citizenship of a country that didn't poke it's nose into the affairs of a different sovereign nation as soon as you get the citizenship of another country that is directly responsible for deaths and horrible conditions of scroes more people.

    The only reason you are carrying a Indian passport is because it suits you for now. The only condition you are willing to ditch that is when you are sure of a better suited passport for you.

    Now express your anger/sympathy or any other emotion but don't pose as if you are doing it for the betterment of world. You put the language people speak over the country one belongs to. Remember the pledge you took during schooling? It said all Indians are my brothers and sisters. If you want to be a world citizen, no issues. People like you are of no use to any country. If you find an issue, work on rectifying it if you have the guts. Don't give dramatic statements like " I too carry the Indian passport with shame"





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  • So are you saying that we could have possible retrogression effective from any day in July?

    In the absence (to our knowledge) of USCIS URL, it is not possoble to say that dates can not retrogress in the middle of a month. For example, USCIS has no rule of time period between switching jobs. This means they can do whatever they feel like.

    I am saying that 2007 GCs can get exhausted at any time independent of I-485s received/approved.





    Are you sure you understood it fully?

    I wrote " if you think ", meaning a lot of harping on is happening based on the assumption that removal of country limits will impact ROW badly. It's not the fact. Though it has been explained a number of times that its not the case, some members obstinately stick to their guns and regurgitate it again!

    Taking some sentence written by me out-of-context does not prove anything.

    Can I ask you a question? How much of IV goals you have supported till date? How many IV activities you have participated? How much you have contributed? I'm interested in knowing. If you haven't , whether you have incentive or not, it doesn't make even a teeny difference to the movement.

    Is the cumulative effect of all three measures good for me (reduced wait time, or no change in wait time), or bad for me (increased wait time.)?

    I read this, and I was referring to this:



    So, does recapture and the increase in quota and the removal of the country limits, result in a greater wait time for me, as the comment above seems to imply. It would, if the recapture and the increase are not large enough to offset the effects of the removal of the per-country limit on ROW.

    Coz if it does, then I don't have an incentive to support your goals, do I?





    This thread is enough to keep the BP at higher levels to the already stressed out folks.

    A lot of people who do not follow immigration stuff have the following perception

    (1) All dates moved - we will all get green cards
    (2) People started applying PERM now - thinking they can make it by September
    (3) They think US wants to keep its valuble people and thats why they opened up the gates
    (4) Some think Indian govt putting pressure on US govt to issue GCs to Indians or else threaten to severe trade ties
    (5) Some thing There is a link between CIR and this. Before CIR is forced implemented they want to clear their existing backlogs so that they get ready to deal with Y and Z stuff
    (6) Some think this decision was taken to clear backlogs so that every new applicant will come under the new points system proposed in CIR

    So many theories, interpretations, perceptions ..... Everything seems to be a perception here



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