People who want a copy of their LCA/I-140, please send that in before this. This will create a real large queue and you won't ever get your copy.
Do we all need to do this ?
-M
Do we all need to do this ?
-M
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where is this 120k EB2I and C coming up from, those who haven't filed 485 yet? So you are expecting another july 2007 making all EB2 Current.
Here is a brief calculation of EB2 Demand till date (Today's Date)
The total demand till date is ~ 120K which is
Demand up to Aug 2007 = 45K
Sep 2007 to Dec 2008 = 16 * 2.5K Perm Month = 40K
Jan 2009 to Oct 2010 = 22 * 1.5K per month = 33K
New PD porting after Aug 2007 (Current Eb3 Inventory is 60K till Aug 2007) = 10K
Total 45 + 40 + 33 + 10 = 128K. This may be inflated but it is atleast 120K.
By giving these numbers I don’t mean to scare anybody but it’s better to have a tryst with true reality rather than be ignorant. It is better to have an understanding of the backlog rather than feeling bad VB after VB, nothing will change soon because the backlog is so huge.
If you look at the numbers it is very unlikely that EB2 will literally become current any time soon, the end of the pre-adjudicated numbers is just a tipping point and when this happens anything could happen 1) Make dates current (I personally welcome that atleast everybody gets a chance to file for I485) 2) Keep accepting applications in a controlled manner so as to approve in quarter or year. 3) Grant spillover to EB3 ROW (EB3 ROW backlog is so huge like EB2 - I in the same range 100-120K that the spillover will disappear in no time, also note that EB3 ROW incremental demand is much higher than EB2 ROW). If you look at EB2 ROW for last year they were current for the whole year but approvals came from 2007. Its the agencies discretion really how they want to control and regulate the demand and honor the INA and the distribution rules. I believe that what may happen when EB2-I/C preadjudicated numbers get exhausted is Option # 2) Keep accepting applications in a controlled manner so as to approve in quarter or year because this is what happened for EB2 ROW; again this is my personal guess / assumption. Also those who have not been able to file for I485 cannot be kept in a endless denial with the preadjudicated numbers exhausted I think the chance will come for EB2 friends.
The spillover is a happening of the present time when the economy is bad, the moment this changes everything will disappear and there will be no difference between EB2 and EB3 if you belong to a retrogressed country we will all be at 3K Per annum and EB5 contribution if any will be consumed by PD porting which will increase manifold as EB3-I folks waiting for 10 years is simply unacceptable, currently there a 60K folks here just till 2007. I strongly favor porting waiting for 10 years is unacceptable. Also being without EAD / AP is very hard, great that we have a IV campaign initiated for this the efforts in this direction are laudable. Actually as Pappu, Admin2 and others have been saying EB3-EB2 even though may be relevant now is actually meaningless this is relevant only in this temporary phase of time fighting on these lines will not help to attain any objective rather it will kill chances of EB3 friends with later PD to port. The biggest issue is the per country limits which equate talent pools like India and China and give them the same cap as countries which have 1/1000th population, if they cannot be eliminated atleast should be proportionate to population for larger countries and be at 7% for the smaller ones. PS - I have nothing personal against ROW friends.
Here is a brief calculation of EB2 Demand till date (Today's Date)
The total demand till date is ~ 120K which is
Demand up to Aug 2007 = 45K
Sep 2007 to Dec 2008 = 16 * 2.5K Perm Month = 40K
Jan 2009 to Oct 2010 = 22 * 1.5K per month = 33K
New PD porting after Aug 2007 (Current Eb3 Inventory is 60K till Aug 2007) = 10K
Total 45 + 40 + 33 + 10 = 128K. This may be inflated but it is atleast 120K.
By giving these numbers I don’t mean to scare anybody but it’s better to have a tryst with true reality rather than be ignorant. It is better to have an understanding of the backlog rather than feeling bad VB after VB, nothing will change soon because the backlog is so huge.
If you look at the numbers it is very unlikely that EB2 will literally become current any time soon, the end of the pre-adjudicated numbers is just a tipping point and when this happens anything could happen 1) Make dates current (I personally welcome that atleast everybody gets a chance to file for I485) 2) Keep accepting applications in a controlled manner so as to approve in quarter or year. 3) Grant spillover to EB3 ROW (EB3 ROW backlog is so huge like EB2 - I in the same range 100-120K that the spillover will disappear in no time, also note that EB3 ROW incremental demand is much higher than EB2 ROW). If you look at EB2 ROW for last year they were current for the whole year but approvals came from 2007. Its the agencies discretion really how they want to control and regulate the demand and honor the INA and the distribution rules. I believe that what may happen when EB2-I/C preadjudicated numbers get exhausted is Option # 2) Keep accepting applications in a controlled manner so as to approve in quarter or year because this is what happened for EB2 ROW; again this is my personal guess / assumption. Also those who have not been able to file for I485 cannot be kept in a endless denial with the preadjudicated numbers exhausted I think the chance will come for EB2 friends.
The spillover is a happening of the present time when the economy is bad, the moment this changes everything will disappear and there will be no difference between EB2 and EB3 if you belong to a retrogressed country we will all be at 3K Per annum and EB5 contribution if any will be consumed by PD porting which will increase manifold as EB3-I folks waiting for 10 years is simply unacceptable, currently there a 60K folks here just till 2007. I strongly favor porting waiting for 10 years is unacceptable. Also being without EAD / AP is very hard, great that we have a IV campaign initiated for this the efforts in this direction are laudable. Actually as Pappu, Admin2 and others have been saying EB3-EB2 even though may be relevant now is actually meaningless this is relevant only in this temporary phase of time fighting on these lines will not help to attain any objective rather it will kill chances of EB3 friends with later PD to port. The biggest issue is the per country limits which equate talent pools like India and China and give them the same cap as countries which have 1/1000th population, if they cannot be eliminated atleast should be proportionate to population for larger countries and be at 7% for the smaller ones. PS - I have nothing personal against ROW friends.
bump
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I complied the list from visa stastistics website
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_1476.html
example 2007 numbers from
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVp2.pdf
2006 numbers from
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY06AnnualReportTableV-Part2.pdf
Hey Man,
This was quiet good information, thanks for all your efforts in finding and compiling them together.
Take Care
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_1476.html
example 2007 numbers from
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVp2.pdf
2006 numbers from
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY06AnnualReportTableV-Part2.pdf
Hey Man,
This was quiet good information, thanks for all your efforts in finding and compiling them together.
Take Care
That is a valid concern veerug brought up and it would be great if the IV core team can list how IV will complement AILF during this lawsuit.
I understand that it may not be the right time since even now AILF is in the process of identifying a strategy and IV team may not have had time to detail this yet. But, it would help if there is a sticky with this info,probably in the same sticky that pappu posted, URGENT IV Message: Lawsuit and other update, so everyone can understand the motivation and the action items for this.
Regarding the media drive,I believe that we have a better chance of getting more attention if we can get information on the scandal info that USCIS might have gone the extra mile to revoke July bulletin availability dates.
Thanks for this portal for everyone to get organized on immigration issues.
Amar
for your efforts with the DIGG drive...
we need to continue.... where we left off
I understand that it may not be the right time since even now AILF is in the process of identifying a strategy and IV team may not have had time to detail this yet. But, it would help if there is a sticky with this info,probably in the same sticky that pappu posted, URGENT IV Message: Lawsuit and other update, so everyone can understand the motivation and the action items for this.
Regarding the media drive,I believe that we have a better chance of getting more attention if we can get information on the scandal info that USCIS might have gone the extra mile to revoke July bulletin availability dates.
Thanks for this portal for everyone to get organized on immigration issues.
Amar
for your efforts with the DIGG drive...
we need to continue.... where we left off
People who want a copy of their LCA/I-140, please send that in before this. This will create a real large queue and you won't ever get your copy.
Do we all need to do this ?
-M
Do we all need to do this ?
-M
There is no wastage. Just because people are not getting green cards does not mean wastage. Show me where in the bulletin or official document you can see wastage.
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I was surprised to see that nowhere it was mentioned that USCIS processed 25k petitions over the weekend (or nearly 60k in 2 weeks) as reported by some USCIS officials last week and in many cases broke their own regulations by approving several cases with pending background/name checks. That definitely sounds to me like a conspiracy against July filers....In my view, that should have been one of the strongest points we can use against USCIS. I dont think we have a case against DOS as they had to revise the bulletin as USCIS requested more than available Visa numbers and exhausted the quota.....Even Dr. Rice made it clear in her NBC interview from the DOS perspective that revision of visa bulletin caused an "inconvenience" to the petitioners....
We need a realistic estimate of how many applications are pending with PD in 2004, which really seems like the bottleneck. Another thing to bear in mind is the conversion from EB3->EB2. That is also going to hinder the movement of EB2. There are a lot of people trying to use that route.
Here you go - conversion should not impact this as the number of LC approvals remains the same:
Here are all the LC approvals for India in the last seven years.
Year, Total LC Approved, Total India
2007 85112 24573
2006 79782 22298
2005 6133 1350
2004 43582 No Info
2003 62912 No Info
2002 79784 No Info
2001 77921 No Info
2000 70204 No Info
Lets assume about 25% of pre-PERM LCs are India based on post-PERM data. Thus for fiscal 2004 (Oct 2003 thru Sep 2004) the total LC number is 43,852. Assume 25% of that to be India based on PERM data. That gives about 11,000 India LCs in 2004 alone (All EB categories combined). If you assume an average of 2.5 dependents then the number of visas required for all India EB categories for 2004 is 27,500 (11,000*2.5). The regular quota for EB2 and EB3 combined is only about 9,800. That means 17,700 visas have to come from somewhere. I dont think those many visas are remaining for this year. Be prepared to see FIFO thrown under the bus and approvals with PDs that are all over the place. Please critique this analysis without piling on. Thoughts?
Here you go - conversion should not impact this as the number of LC approvals remains the same:
Here are all the LC approvals for India in the last seven years.
Year, Total LC Approved, Total India
2007 85112 24573
2006 79782 22298
2005 6133 1350
2004 43582 No Info
2003 62912 No Info
2002 79784 No Info
2001 77921 No Info
2000 70204 No Info
Lets assume about 25% of pre-PERM LCs are India based on post-PERM data. Thus for fiscal 2004 (Oct 2003 thru Sep 2004) the total LC number is 43,852. Assume 25% of that to be India based on PERM data. That gives about 11,000 India LCs in 2004 alone (All EB categories combined). If you assume an average of 2.5 dependents then the number of visas required for all India EB categories for 2004 is 27,500 (11,000*2.5). The regular quota for EB2 and EB3 combined is only about 9,800. That means 17,700 visas have to come from somewhere. I dont think those many visas are remaining for this year. Be prepared to see FIFO thrown under the bus and approvals with PDs that are all over the place. Please critique this analysis without piling on. Thoughts?
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If you have been following the news this week, the economy is really in trouble. Specifically financial and insurance sector. Dow plunged around 900 + points in last 2 days.
Mine reached NSC on July 2 at 9:02 AM. Got Fedex delivery confirmation and no receipt from CIS yet. Will check with my lawyer for advise.
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You are absolutely right dude :)
All (whose PD will be current) the Eb2 India folks try your luckkkkkkkkkkkkk..
Even after your PD becomes current you are still at the mercy of the IO and RD, ND and all the odd's
Its like Mega Million or Power ball lotto. I don't trust USCIS/DOS until I have the GC plastic in my hand.
In mean while we have to focus on the legislative efforts, Especially for EB3-I with out that it will be very hard.
So folks be active and get involved in IV's effort
All (whose PD will be current) the Eb2 India folks try your luckkkkkkkkkkkkk..
Even after your PD becomes current you are still at the mercy of the IO and RD, ND and all the odd's
Its like Mega Million or Power ball lotto. I don't trust USCIS/DOS until I have the GC plastic in my hand.
In mean while we have to focus on the legislative efforts, Especially for EB3-I with out that it will be very hard.
So folks be active and get involved in IV's effort
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Just carry a copy of I-94 or EAD with you all the time. Just keep it stapled to your insurance or in your wallet and forget about it.
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Here is a link confirming the above:
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=5551
The strange thing here is that it says TSA and not FBI will be doing the backgound check, where as i am sure i heard on the NPR report that it will be the FBI which will do the initial Name Check.
Regards.
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=5551
The strange thing here is that it says TSA and not FBI will be doing the backgound check, where as i am sure i heard on the NPR report that it will be the FBI which will do the initial Name Check.
Regards.
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All,
Do I need to send the following documents for AP renewal?.
1. H1B or H4
2. EAD
Thanks
Do I need to send the following documents for AP renewal?.
1. H1B or H4
2. EAD
Thanks
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China EB3 moved from Oct 02 to Mar 03. In the Jan bulletin, China EB3 was at Jun 02!
India EB3 moved from Oct 01 to Nov 01. In the Jan bulletin, India EB3 was still at Oct 01!
China EB3 is certainly making some progress. Wonder why India EB3 is lagging so far behind and virtually crawling at a snail's pace.
India EB3 moved from Oct 01 to Nov 01. In the Jan bulletin, India EB3 was still at Oct 01!
China EB3 is certainly making some progress. Wonder why India EB3 is lagging so far behind and virtually crawling at a snail's pace.
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I was checked by immigration authorities when i was comming from San diego to Los Angeles. Near the check post there were signs to go slow for imigration checks. One border patrol car came besides me and waved his hand to pull towards the curb. I changed my lanes and also helped the border patrol to change his lanes towards the shoulder. He got down from his car and asked me what is my status I told H1B. I showed him my ID card and told him to check my status through my ID card. He returned my ID card and let me go. (I don't know why they let me go maybe my name is spanish and my last name is british)
Just wondering what would the immigration authorities do if they catch a illegal. There are millions of illegals in Los Angeles and they also had rallies almost every year in downtown Los Angeles.
I am not going to carry my immigration document if i am within US. I never have carried during the last 7 years. At the most they would escort me to my residence which is okay for me.
J thomas
I passed that CBP checkpoint twice when I went to San Diego and twice, I wasn't inspected. Both times, I have no immigration documents with me but my CA Driver's License.
May I ask, do you happen to have out of state licence plate?
Just wondering what would the immigration authorities do if they catch a illegal. There are millions of illegals in Los Angeles and they also had rallies almost every year in downtown Los Angeles.
I am not going to carry my immigration document if i am within US. I never have carried during the last 7 years. At the most they would escort me to my residence which is okay for me.
J thomas
I passed that CBP checkpoint twice when I went to San Diego and twice, I wasn't inspected. Both times, I have no immigration documents with me but my CA Driver's License.
May I ask, do you happen to have out of state licence plate?
So whether you receive RFE, NOID depends on adjudicator instead of USCIS rules.
Yes. However, on the flip side, if the 140 withdrawel letter was dated within 180 days of 485 pending, your 485 will be denied no matter what RFE or NOID. Few good adjudicaters may send RFE in stead of NOID/direct denial.
Yes. However, on the flip side, if the 140 withdrawel letter was dated within 180 days of 485 pending, your 485 will be denied no matter what RFE or NOID. Few good adjudicaters may send RFE in stead of NOID/direct denial.
When we emailed him about our concerns regarding this issue his response was the following:
I have won many cases without it. It�s not something we need to worry about at this point b/c we don�t have receipts yet. If immigration needs it they will likely request it.
To tell you the truth I'm still very worried.
The cited press releases do clearly say that they MAY deny an AOS application. What disturbs me is... why on earth should someone NOT obey the instructions which are clearly laid out on the front pages of the I-485 application forms? Is there a benefit to NOT submitting the employment letter?
I have won many cases without it. It�s not something we need to worry about at this point b/c we don�t have receipts yet. If immigration needs it they will likely request it.
To tell you the truth I'm still very worried.
The cited press releases do clearly say that they MAY deny an AOS application. What disturbs me is... why on earth should someone NOT obey the instructions which are clearly laid out on the front pages of the I-485 application forms? Is there a benefit to NOT submitting the employment letter?
