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  • I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.

    The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).

    On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.

    Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).

    Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.

    You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))

    Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).

    Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.

    So you stand to lose:

    1. Your down payment of $120k
    2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
    3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k

    Total potential loss: $250,000!!!

    This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.

    My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier t his decade.
    Jung.lee very good second post from you. People still think it is very easy to keep on holding onto your home for long time till turn around happens.
    But life events can cause you to sell like
    1. Job loss and not able to find job in the same area till back up money runs out.
    2. Kids grow up and you need to pay for college and you have little saving as you are holding to see turn around
    3. Hope not but some medical emergency.

    There can be many more situations. Do you know what people are currently doing in these situation ?
    Get money from Home equity ATM machine !!

    Personally I will be scared to buy now as my payment will be more than 50% of my salary and any of above situations will cause me to sell.
    The prices have to become saner ....
    This is very different from anything we have seen. Wall street will change, money will be harder to come by.
    I think time to say " Welcome savings again ". Long term very good for US as country.





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  • Good points, but let me put a counter argument. Two people , one is named SunnySurya and the other is named Mr XYZ. Both came to the USA at the same time in 1999. The difference was SunnySurya came here for his masters and the other guy came here through shady means.

    Mr XYZ was able to file his green card in 2002 in EB3 category based on his shady arrangements with his employer, whereas Mr SunnySurya continued to do right and socially acceptable things i.e. studied, got a job and then after several years this big company filled his green card in EB2 category in 2006.

    On the other hand after strugling for several years Mr. XYZ has collected enough years on his resume to be elligible for EB2. Now he want to port his PD

    SunnySurya's PD is 2006 and Mr. XYZ PD is 2002. Now if Mr. XYZ want to stand in EB2 line, I wonder what problems SunnySurya can have???:confused:

    And let me add another twist to the story.

    The Guy with Masters degree is working with a desi sweatshop and convinced his masters (No pun) to file for Eb2 even though his job duties were just dish out code like a high school grad can do. On the other hand there was another guy who was in US for a decade , gone though masters degree and got a very good job in a very good company. He was eligible for EB2 but his only mistake was to not force the company to file a EB2 case or even worse his lawyer makes a mistake and files under Eb3 even though the job he was in and he are qualified as Eb2. The company wants to make amends now by filing a EB2 case and first MS guy (sweatshop guy) wants him to start again and wait for another decade.

    The kicker : The sweat shop labor guy works in the same company as contractor and reports to the second guy and in the same reporting chain, just two levels below him.



    How about another story :

    Both guys go to the same engg school back home. One guy passed with distinction and got a job immediately in a respectable company immediately. Other guy takes two additional years to finish the degree , but his dad was rich enough to send him to the US to complete the MS and now he thinks he is smarter than every one else and needs a special place in the queue.


    You can come up with 100s of stories if not more. Therefore you can't generalize. Just don't think all those who filed under EB2 first are with MS and smarter than others and all those who are Eb3 are here by shady means.





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  • Dude, you are one confused person.........whats the point here??
    EB-3 India is somehow "special" and all you whiners in EB-3 India should get your GCs before EB-2 folks becuase blah blah blah........WHAT???

    are you insane?? you make no sense in your argument.

    Numbers fall as EB1--> EB2 --> EB3.

    Dont like it, go get an education and/or an EB-2 level job. Else shut up. You have nothing to say.



    Hi kutra,

    Good post I can understand what you want to do here, you are diffusing the tensions between EB2 and EB3. I hope many more people write posts like you and I appreciate it. But factually what you said is not correct "The US immigration system wants EB1 first, then EB2 and then EB3".

    What I am posting here I sent the same in private messages to some other members and it helped to diffuse this bad arguments between EB3 and EB2 folks.. I am posting here because I thought with this I can give the right(my?) perspective on this and bring some �sanity� to these arguments.

    Here is my take on this EB1, EB2 and EB3.

    Out of the total 140K each EB group gets equal quota of 33.33%. So if each EB group gets equal quota of 33.33%, then what and where is the priority? EB1, EB2 and EB3 are just groups, it just means that US need these categories of jobs to be filled by immigrant workers.

    By definition always number applications filed in EB3>EB2>EB1 there is no argument there. And the waiting time also will be EB3>EB2>EB1. That is fair, there is no competition here across groups, each have a quota and its own queue, every one competes with in the group.

    If first, all(9K Ind)(140K Total) Visas are given to E1 and any leftover are given to EB2 and then any leftover from EB2 are given to EB3 then you can say the priority is EB1>EB2>EB3. The spillover that to from a particular preference has priority I understand. But at the least every group will get its 33.33% if those many category applications are present in that group.

    Yes, unused ROW EB1 go EB2 and then to EB3. Yes unused ROW EB2 and ROW EB3 and to EB3. That makes sense and it dos not contradict what I am saying. Now EB2 is special case that there are lots of EB2 India applications are pending so they get only the spillover from EB1.


    I agree with you on your statement below, and I feel the same way. Looks like if either Eb2 or EB3 is mentioned in a thread it turning into a bad arguments between EB2 and EB3 hope this ends soon.
    As I wrote earlier, I'm an EB3-Indian as well. Only differences being, I have still maintained my sanity, and I have the patience to wait for IV to deliver the official guidance on proceeding further.





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  • AC21 tells that one can leave the job after 6 months of filing I485. But the green card is for future job and if anyone is not working for a company after receiving permanent job then green card can be considered as fraud.
    These 2 rules are contraditory in nature.
    Some of my friends quit the job after 6 months of I485 but after receiving GC they went back and worked for a few months.

    Generally USCIS does not have time and resource to track this. But I think they do randomly. One of my other friend resigned the job and he was doing business. He got interview and he postponed the interview to get a job and letter from his previous Company.

    If anyone is happy in their job can stay there till receiving gc. In case of layoffs there is no choice one need to invoke. Even if need to resign the Company it is better try to maintain good relationship. After 8 years GC is denied that will place in tough situation though it will happen for a few cases

    I refer back to my earlier posting where I said I just read the memos and the law and thought this stuff was pretty simple. USCIS quite often goes above and beyond (tax returns rfe's, pictures of company inside/outside).

    I'll give you some examples of what they have done of which I have intimate knowledge of:

    1) Questioned company on I-140 why they had more 140's pending/approved then the number of people on payroll. Asked for all 140 info., h1, L1 and even the people who got employment base greencard and asked company to justify where they are

    2) Department of state for visa stamping; if they don't trust client letter; they refer the case to department of state fraud unit in Kentucky. They will then contact signer of letter and HR of company to verify that person signed the letter

    3) Department of labor is on a real war path of checking companies compliance with h-1b based on referrals made by department of state. I can tell you that there is no way any company who is h-1b dependent can be 100% compliant with h-1b. Patni got fined $3.5 million for violations.

    4) Department of labor made a home visit to an HR person who was no longer working with the company to ask and verify her signatue on labor applications in a fast processing state when they weren't registered to do business there

    5) Department of labor verifying that people were paid the greencard wage upon greencard approval (this was in conjunction with h-1b investigation). I can tell you that some states have very high eb2 wages and people aren't even close to the labor number; companies do it anyways to keep you happy but do they run that number once you do get the greencard?

    6) h-1b rfe's from california service center. when quota finished in one day; there was some rumors from california service center that they would be treating h-1b transfers/quota cases very harshly in that companies were engaging in speculative employment. These days if you are involved in software and you file an h-1b transfer or even extension with california service center; you have a very good chance of getting a four page rfe. One of the things they have started to ask for is a table of people whom h-1b's have been filed for. Table has to list name, social security number, receipt number, date of birth, joining date, termination date, no show, future joining date. California service center then intertwines this information with company unemployment compensation reports. I have actually seen 3 recent denials where USCIS examined the unemployment compensation reports and looked at people who may have been paid a lower wage and pulled those people's h-1b files and denied the present case saying they can't trust the company to comply with the h-1b, lca.

    ----------------------------------------------------------

    These days; uscis/dol/dos really means business. I refer you to earlier posting of how evertime a company files a case; it gives uscis a chance to go through entire immigration history of a company. They have the resources and tools.





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  • Aadimanav, mirage and pani_6, do you guys wanna run with this?

    Or any other volunteers?

    Come up with a draft and then share with rest of us.

    I have drafted a Petition (Version 1).

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=262309#post262309





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  • I understand your point of view, I used to work in solar energy. When i completed my post graduation most of the jobs required a USC (this was 10 yrs ago). I had to switch to software related jobs.

    For me the number one priority is how Obama will handle the Skilled immigration issues. will he guided by Sen Dick Durbin, who at the moment seems to be his policy wonk. That will be a disaster for us. They have no intension of supporting skilled immigrants. We will will have to make some serious decisions if he is elected.

    How many of us want to continue to stay in limbo...i dont.

    For all the outpouring of love for obama, i have yet to see a single concrete proposal. Take the renewal energy policy for example, i think he wants to spend $150 billion on renewal energy. How will he fund this? Who will pay for this. is it you and me with higher taxes..i am already taxed up to the wazoo. In an effort to win the election he is pandering to one and all. Can someone reduce my fears that he will help EB..i dont think so. He said in the debate that he will stop outsourcing, please tell me if that is possible and how will he do it?


    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.''
    -- Spanish philosopher/poet/novelist George Santayana, 1906

    My primary reason for supporting Obama is environment...

    Obama truely supports renewable energy, and did not cave to placating the public with lowering gas tax. While I think that $15,000,000,000 per year may not be enough it is a start in the right direction.

    My political slogan:
    "Blow baby blow"
    "Shine baby shine"
    - Renewable energy is the future, it is made in the USA!

    Many of us high skilled immigrants have the above average get-up-and-go that it takes to move this country forward to a brighter future. After all we had the get-up-and-go to move here.

    However, the system does work against us. Being an "temporary" sure did not make it any easier making the investment that I have.





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  • you can try gands.com for H1stamping..they might be a little expensive,but if it works and you want to avoid going back home for H1b stamping trauma..its worth it...

    we went for our H1/H4 renewal stamping with them, though our case was all clear..we dint want to take chance with Chennai consulate and spend in suspense our vacation back home after 5yrs in US





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  • I suggest you stop looking at national level figures if you are seeking accurate information. Look at the specific neighborhood you have mind and you may find that the situation there is not exactly what is shown on CNN.

    As an example the DFW area is doing alright inspite of the gloomy picture painted by the media at the national level. Used homes will take longer to sell, but it is nowhere as bad as Florida or CA. And we are not discussing selling here anyway...we are discussing buying.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/14/business/worldbusiness/14real.html?_r=2&ex=1365912000&en=5fc0b58ba0e5df8f&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
    Now it is global.:D. India has started seeing decline too. After all a ponzi scheme is still a ponzi scheme wherever.





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  • 1. Money cant buy happiness


    A new research:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2042446720080320?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&rpc=22&sp=true





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  • By the time, the lion gets the GC, he might have forgot he was a lion, and even after getting GC, he will continue to act like monkey.

    Yes ... this leads to a pale and worried Lion keep worrying that whether he should stay with the current zoo for n number of days before taking a new position at some other zoo.

    Looks like a story plot for Madagascar III





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  • We had similar case. It was in 2002. Company was ready to issue another future offer letter. Local USCIS office at Buffalo NY did not agree to continue process. They said job offer is gone the I-485 is gone and has valid reason the denial. They asked my friend to refile I-140 and I-485.

    What ended up happening? Did he refile?

    Also, in that situation, if he had managed to get an offer letter from a third company, would the USCIS have then okayed it?





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  • Real estate cycles are lenghty ones.. not like stock markets which turn around in 4 to 5 years.. Real estate booms are seen once in every 15 to 18 years... This is because the sum of amount is huge and the stabilization time frame.

    Based on current outlook, the prices for houses will fall until end of 2010 and will stabilize in next 5 to rise again by 2015 to 2017. This is purely based on historic pattern.. Now god kows what these crazy folks like Bernankie (15 fold increase in currency base projected in Fed Reserve BS. :D) and Gessner' (foolish tax payer investment in GM though it looks like payback to unions) interfearance will do to this country...

    Some people jump guns and create demand for home to get $8000 credit... you can see now the builders are increasing prices for homes in the market... slowly.. but will not sustain into 2010.. it will fall for one important reason, supply is too much.. oh by the way.. 30% of home owners want to sell their homes in this market to avoid further fall... based on recent survey..





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  • .

    These two types of documentation were requested by US Consulate, Chennai for issuing H4 visa for my wife. I had to get these documents and send to india for stamping. They issued H4 immediately after reviewing the documentation. I have not faked any documentation. They have requested these documentation based on the assumption that my employer is letter pad company.


    In the last year to year and a half; I have definitely seen uscis and department of state get extremely difficult in approving cases.

    Chennai and california service center are pretty much standard in what they look for and request.

    I had never seen california service center deny another beneficiaries h-1b due to low payment of wages of other beneficiaries. However, now I have seen it.

    I know cases where an H-4 went to visa stamping and consulate requeted h-1b person who was in the states to appear at chennai consulate. They asked him to explain discrepancy between his tax returns; w2's and company information. He couldn't give satisfactory response and they revoked his h-1b visa.

    In approving another h-4 visa; they askd h-1b person why they didn't get paid for three month when they entered USA. Company president along with h-1b beneficiary said that he had to climitize himself and then it took a while to get the social security number. Once he got it then he got paid. Visa officer laughed at the explanation and gave the h-4 visa. Six months later; company gets a DOL audit request for possible h-1b violations. DOL officer said that consulate sent them notification that there was h-1b violations.

    Chennai consulate asked for a client letter for a person who was initially entering on h-1b. Company gets h-1b's sister who is working for a very large high tech company to give a letter. Chennai knows that big american companies do not give such letters. Chennai consulate contacts person who wrote the letter and then contacts HR at the company to verify. Company investigates and fires the sister for giving the letter.

    Last couple of years; uscis and dos have really ramped it up a few notches in the scrutiny they are giving people and documents.





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  • We will support your lawsuit if you pay up for our support. I am onboard if the figure is 4 digit or above. I hope your lawsuit doesn't get backlogged in the court and USCIS holds up your GC application until your case is decided in the court.
    If you lose the case I will return your money with a 3% interest to compensate for inflation or defalation of the currency.





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  • I heard many stories that consultants are selling labor certifications and this lead to a big back log.... people who were last in the line are in front of the line now....consultants created a business from these labor certifications and are making lots of money...its fair for the government or uscis to apply this bill and control this black business....


    :p Attack of the Trolls - Final Battle





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  • A Republican Purge on K? (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/26/AR2007022601142_2.html)

    John Feehery has left the Motion Picture Association of America to start his own lobbying firm, the Feehery Group. Feehery, 43, joined the movie lobby with great fanfare in 2005 to help silence sotto voce attacks by congressional Republicans, then in the majority, on the group's chief executive, former congressman Dan Glickman (D-Kan.), and on left-leaning Hollywood. Feehery had been the spokesman for then-House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) and a veteran GOP leadership aide.

    But last month, the MPAA named Seth Oster, a Democrat, as executive vice president for communications, in effect taking part of Feehery's portfolio. My colleague at washingtonpost.com, Mary Ann Akers, reports that lobbyists worry that the move might presage a citywide purge of Republicans. But Feehery professes no bitterness. "It was a good time for me to start my own business," he said. "It gives me a greater range to do things I want to do." The MPAA will be one of his first clients, he added.





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  • The way it is working for EB2, it is going to work exactly for EB3.

    If this is the case.
    Given the high number of ROW EB3 it will never help Indian EB3. so spilling some of EB1 over to EB3 doesn't really help Indian EB3. But this letter could hurt Indian EB2. Now there is hope for lot of Indian EB3 to convert to EB2. That could be lost. I am als one of the converts.





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  • Hello, If I were to put you all guys in a room and give you a permission to fight each other, you will really beat the crap out of others..

    Any topic, any issue will lead to in-fighting..

    Why did most Indians were caught on wrong doings in H1B, becos, most Indians had to spend most time on H1B status. Atleast 5 more years than usual. I am not saying it is right. But that is the fact..

    How long is Long enough to prove that one is employed to a GC?? No one knows???

    How many of the FTEs do other jobs that are not listed on their H1B? I bet most.. You don't look at your H1B petition to see if you are qualified to do that job or not. You will do it if you asked by your boss. Even if you can't, you will learn and still do it.

    So stop these crazy talk and help the OP if you can or just give a moral support.

    Most of you are not still convinced that we are not the reason for backlog. It is CIS that wasted visas and is the reason for the backlog.. That is the problem..





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  • Instead of getting emotional if we look at the point Rolling_Flood is trying to make, it makes perfect sense.

    I don't see why there are so many angered arguments...

    1. EB2/EB3 is decided by Job Profile - correct. Its always option to say NO if your employer is filing it in EB3. My previous company wanted to file my labor in EB3, I said NO and left them. Filed in EB2 with new employer.

    Its easy to be sympathetic with people whose employer filed them in EB3, but remember they always had option to say NO.

    2. If someone have EB3 priority date before other guy who filed EB2 from beginning, the porting EB3 to EB2 and getting ahead of EB2 guy is grossly incorrect. I can't believe USCIS lets this happen.

    If someones job profile was eligible for EB3 only when they filed and now fits in EB2, they should file fresh application based on EB2 job profile.


    Looking at previous trashing of thread opener, I am expecting lots of reds - so go ahead but that not going to change the truth.


    No, I will not waste time on giving you a red, looks like you are someone who wants to stoke more fire. Your new PD with only this post shows your true colors (red or green or whatever you call it)





    Actually, USCIS does nothing with the Consulate copy of G-325 if applicant has been in the USA for more than one year. You can find this fact in the I-485 Adjudicator's manual.

    Possibly.

    However; there are many things that uscis asks for that they are hinging on the grayest of gray areas to get at other things.

    Examples:

    You don't need to submit tax returns with 485. However, they ask in RFE sometimes. Why do they do that?

    USCIS asks for photos of office in h-1b rfe's. There is nothing in the law/regulations stating they are supposed to ask for it.

    There is many examples where uscis/dos ask for things that are not required in the law/regulations. However; a lot of these types of evidence they ask for is for "intent", looking for inconsistencies, trying to look at the resonability of information...

    Long back when I used to just read memos/laws; it looked pretty straightforward. However; uscis uses the grayest of gray areas to their benefit, not your's.

    Department of state for every visa except h and L assume by default that a person has intention of immigrating. The onus is on us to show that we are not going to do that. Unfortunately, uscis is turning the same way in adjudicating of benefits. They seem to think that everyone is playing with the system and they in turn are becoming very difficult.





    violence is a two way sword..

    its not that hamas is doing gandhigiri there.. even though they were elected to rule palestine..those morons instead of providing good governence and hope to their ppl..have resorted to some mindless/aimless bombing of Israel.

    i care that kids are getting killed... but dont you care then when one of ur jihadi blows himself up..and many innocent get killed.
    I support that palestinians be given their right to self rule.. but they should learn to live and let live..

    so you are saying.. u can kill ppl in the name of god..and when someone responds..u squirm like a toad?

    grow up.. kid..

    Its another form of supporting state sponsored terrorism. Do you think people go and seek refuge in schools? Its what these biased media feed us and this is what we consume.

    This is how they justify their killing of innocent school kids and civilians. They don't even spare kids. Shame on us who try to justify the killing.

    News media says Palestinians have fired 6000 to 7K rockets into Isreal. But what they show is all Isreal aerial bombardment. Have they ever shown damage caused by Palestinians?



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