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  • :eek:

    I have been reading this thread with a lot of interest and could not hold back from commenting on the unbridled optimism many of you guys are showing towards the housing market, which reminds me of the "long tailed" euphoria that followed long after the NASDAQ had crashed over 50% in 2001 after the tech bubble, and people kept wishing it would come back long after it became clear to most cynical observers that it would take decades to achieve the same levels as before (and it hasn't yet)...

    Housing has not yet bottomed. It still has a long way to go. You guys may think that the foreclosures related to subprime resets have subsided so the market may recover. You haven't seen anything yet. Consider:

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/loan-matrix.jpg

    and:

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/adjustable-rate-mortgage-reset-schedule.jpg

    Option ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) and Alt-A ARMs are the next two shoes to drop. In case you've had your head buried in the sand, the economy is on verge of a collapse. Unemployment is soaring and many more companies are considering layoffs. Many economic observers are opining that we are already in recession.

    Desi junta, and others, I entreat you readers to please consider this seriously in your house purchase decisions. If for some reason you need to sell and move out, at a minimum you will be saving some money (by not losing your downpayment, for example) by choosing to rent. Rent a house/townhouse from a private owner if you are tired of renting an apartment and have growing kids - it's a "renters market" in the private rental marketplace right now with so many investment properties purchased during the housing bubble available for rent.

    I would like to offer up a few blogs, whose commentators should be taken seriously. I recommend you read and bookmark the following blogs if you want to follow the housing market and the economy:

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/

    http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

    I like this website for people just starting out to get more financially educated (in an entertaining way):

    http://www.minyanville.com/

    Good luck and please be careful before 'taking the plunge!'

    very good post jung.lee. As you said lay offs have not even started !! Recent 80000 job loss data came in. This is givt data which is a lot worse than expected. Imagine the real job losses !!
    For me this is beginning of end !! Things will get real now. House prices will come in line with what people can afford .....





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  • You, being an Indian by nationality, hate India so much and I can only imagine what a Pakistani terrorist would think! You were born in India, got your education from there, have friends and family there, but still, in a heart beat, side with the terrorists that kill innocent Indians.

    I've heard this numerous times and I now know it for a fact - Muslims love their religion more than the country. It is, now even more clear, who MOST Indian muslims will side with in case of a dispute between India and Pakistan.

    How old is the technique of discrediting my links to win the argument. Of course, if I tell you of all the atrocities of Indian army in Kashmir, or punjab, or assam, to you I am a muslim, and my default I hate India. Of course, it wouldn't matter if good old amnesty internationl would raise a red flag against india...
    http://www.amnesty.org/en/appeals-for-action/thousands-lost-kashmir-mass-graves

    wait they have raised a red flag a million times, anybody paying attention, or just shaking head in disbelief?
    or you do not want to loose your right to dance on murder of muslims had it not been a country like India where Modis, advanis, uma bhartis can roam freely....
    ...oh wait, but India also denies any trials against in military in Kashmir, so they can do what they want, and never be challenged in court of law, and amnesty's report goes to garbage, because this is Hindu india, and minorities like Sikhs, Bodos, muslims, dalits, dravidians will have to put up with their hegemony...

    ... and yes, if somebody losses his mind because his home has been bulldozed by indian army, or women raped and murdered ... he will be branded terrorist and shot.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6074994.stm

    ... but of course this is a rambling of muslim, and all muslims are terrorists, and all hindus are protector of bharat mata, so when a hindu kills a muslim, he kills a terrorist, but if a muslim rebels in lack of justice and equality, he is a terrorist.... it's a fair game!





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  • You are wrong my friend. Not all rich people pay cash for their homes. Read this - Celebrity Foreclosures - Forbes.com (http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/02/gotti-canseco-dykstra-foreclosures-business-celebrities.html)

    And who was rich first and does not consider his house as an investment!





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  • Sure sometimes change can bring hard-luck, but remember that if you want to change your luck at my expense purely based on your length of wait and regardless of skill level as established by law, then DON'T expect me to not push back. Another letter countering the position can always be written in an individual if not collective capacity.

    I also wonder where was all this thought about change and hard-luck when EB2-I was shafted last year and numbers spilt over to EB3ROW.

    Well, why is there 33% quota for EB1,2 and 3 in the first place. They could have very well made it 100% for Eb1 and if there was any spill over, EB2 gets them and then finally EB3! Because, US needs people from all categories.

    Now all that I am saying is there should be some % on the spill over that comes from EB1.

    If there are 300,000 applicants in EB2 and if the spill over from EB1 is 30K every year, you think it is fair that EB2 gets that for over 6-7 years without EB3 getting anything? That is not fair and if that's what the law says, it has to be revisited. I am saying give 75% or even 90% to EB2 and make sure you clear EB3 with PD as old 2001 and 2002. That is being human. They deserve a GC as much as an EB2 with 2007 (and I am not saying that EB3 2007 deserves as much as an EB2 2007).

    Bottom line, EB3 (or for that matter any category) can't be asked to wait endlessly just because there are some smart kids in another queue! We can come up with a better format of the letter; we can change our strategy to address this issue; we do not have to talk about EB2 and mention only our problems. We want EB3 queue to move.





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  • Commercial Venture

    Turning SKS into a commercial venture allowed the firm to tap an unlimited pool of funds from private investors. That, in turn, let the company grow and reduce rates, Akula says.

    �Interest rates have come down over time,� he says. �Because it works, she comes back year after year,� he says of his customers.

    His autobiography, �A Fistful of Rice� (Harvard Business Review Press, 2010), provides a glimpse of the expansion drive.

    Akula, a former McKinsey & Co. consultant, studied McDonald�s Corp. and Burger King Holdings Inc. in 2005 to learn about their speedy training of unskilled workers. He devised a two-month course to train as many as 1,000 new loan officers a month.

    �I now had one goal for SKS; to grow, grow, grow as fast as we could,� he writes. �We could practice microfinance in a way that would serve more poor people than anyone had ever thought possible.�

    Akula says the commercial model of microfinance isn�t the only way.

    Returning to �Roots�

    �It�s an important complement to other forms of finance,� he says. New microfinance companies don�t spend time to build trust, Akula says. �As an industry, we need to go back to our roots,� he says.

    The Reserve Bank is scheduled to report on the industry in January. The finance ministry is planning new rules.

    Sequoia Capital�s Chadha says he�s concerned about �regulatory uncertainty� created by the state ordinance and prefers federal regulation. Nationwide rules would prevent individual states from damaging credit discipline by waiving loans, Microfinance Institutions� Prasad says.

    �It is no different than needing good regulation for stock investing or starting a manufacturing facility,� SKS investor Khosla says.

    �People, Not Profit�

    From Yunus�s perspective, it�s essential that the industry move away from seeking maximum profits and get back to focusing on the poor.

    �If not, you are not helping poor people�s lives,� he says. �You are not patient. You are not restrained. You don�t have empathy for the people. You are just using them to make money. That�s what blinds you when you are in the profit-making world. We need to see the people, not profit.�

    Any such changes would be too late for Atthili Padma and Shivalingam, a young couple in Andhra Pradesh�s cotton-farming village of Chennampalli.

    Padma, a 22-year-old mother of two, walked out of her house on Oct. 7 with her 18-month-old son and 4-year-old daughter, according to Maruthi Prasad, a superintendent at the police station in Shankarampet.

    Padma�s Death

    Instead of heading to her parents� house as she often did, she walked 2 kilometers in the opposite direction. She came to an old Hindu temple where villagers worship Lord Shiva, the god of destruction. Padma continued until she stood in front of a well once used to irrigate crops, her father-in-law, Pochaiah, says. There, with no one to dissuade her, she jumped into the well with her children.

    The day before she died, Padma had visited her parents after arguing with her husband over loans they couldn�t repay, according to Mangamma, the couple�s neighbor.

    Their marriage five years ago was arranged by their parents and the couple had become close and hadn�t fought before that day, Mangamma says. The loans totaled 20,000 rupees, Pochaiah says.

    Padma�s death is recorded as a microfinance-related suicide in the list by the Society for Elimination of Rural Poverty.

    �Sad Day for Microfinance�

    Police arrested Padma�s husband, Shivalingam, on Oct. 13 for allegedly abetting Padma�s suicide. They also alleged that he�d harassed her to provide money to marry him, which is illegal in India, according to Narayana, a constable at the Shankarampet police station.

    Police made two further arrests on Nov. 8: Share Microfin managers Sriram Raghavender, 27, and Polapalli Kumaraswami, 22, also for allegedly abetting the suicide, according to superintendent Prasad. The two managers and Shivalingam have been released on bail and are awaiting a court hearing, Prasad says.

    Advocates and investors such as Khosla say microfinance -- when it works correctly -- is the best way to give the rural poor a shot at better lives.

    The tragedies in India present the worst possible outcome, says Cashpor�s Gibbons, whose Nov. 15 speech opened a morning session of the annual Microfinance India Summit in New Delhi.

    �This is a sad day for microfinance,� said Gibbons, who has promoted the movement for the past two decades.

    �Often people asked me, �What are you doing here?�� he told the audience. �I�ve been always proud to say, �I�m doing microfinance.� Now, when people ask, I feel embarrassed. I feel like hiding somewhere.�





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  • Don't remember exactly, I can look into the wording of the law but I think
    post bachelor 5 year experience for EB2 is a law and not Memo.

    If it's the law then Yates 2000 memo is having unintended consequences after retrogression hit.





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  • I have full sympathy for anyone that has not broken any laws including OP and 'leoindiano". If I had the powers to approve green cards, I would give them away to him and his brother!

    The problem here is no one (consulting company/employee) bothered to make sure that a person on H-1B was allowed to do consulting. I'm not sure who dropped the ball - companies, employees, or the immigration lawyers. But someone should have raised a flag when the type of job was really a temp job. Unfortunately that did not happen.

    Now that the damage has been done, and USCIS is coming after such folks, they are upset that it is happening to them. Again, do note that I am not saying the consultants themselves are less skilled than anyone with FT job. I'm just saying that at the time they got into consulting they did not think of the various consequences. Maybe because no one ever thought that working at different locations, benching, temp nature of the jobs were all against H-1B visa rules?

    You get my point?

    sledge_hammer,

    Why don't you define what a "permanent" job is ?
    You think FT job is a permanent job and consulting is a temporary job ? I don't think so.

    There are consultants working for years in a consulting firm. ( Don't bring H1B into the picture) . There are many FT employees being laid off from companies before contractors are let go. Contractors are temporary from a client's perspective not from the sponsoring employer's perspective.

    Try to define a permanent vs temporary job in US without bringing H1B into the picture.





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  • I guess this is the easiest way to become a Senior member. Copy paste the same "personally deduced information" in different threads. If required, create a new thread and paste it again.

    Dude, refrain from doing it.....Doesn't serve the purpose of the forum.

    Cheers.





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  • UN,

    Glad to see you back in the forums!

    Do you have any idea why attorneys strongly discourage their clients to travel after filing 485 but before receiving the receipt notices?

    If you have a H/L visa it may not problem to re-enter US with your visa, but will it affect the 485 filing if you did not have the receipt notice when you traveled outside?

    Once 485 is filed you can leave and re-enter the country if you have H or L visa.

    You don't need to wait for the actual receipt.

    Problem occurs if you leave before august 17th; thinking that lawyer has sent the case when he really hasn't and you were out when ucis receives the package. Eventually; uscis would figure it out and could deny the case becuase of this.

    Also, not wise to leave before august 17th; because if the package gets returned for whatever reason then you need to be here to send it in again and you would have to update with new passport pages with stamps and i-94 card and date of last entry, etc.

    I understand that people have to go out on business but they are unnecessary complications that people are doing.





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  • ... there would be more louder Dobbsians in the future if anti immigration gets established inteh general psyche of Americans as it has already in many, many, many european nations.

    Dobbsians will fail in establishing anti-immigrant sentiments, because at anytime, general psyche of Americans will always be "US is a nation of immigrants". US is different in this respect compared to european nations.





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  • UN..after I read your story..

    god..you r so gutsy.. must appreciate you..!!


    Just follow the law. There are lots of protections in it for us.





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  • This Thread is UN's -- :-)





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  • 245k will protect you; as they can only look at your status from the date of last entry until filing 485, as long as you didn't overstay i-94 card by more then six months.

    as you can see from the original poster; uscis was trying to go after her husband in a different way by saying that he listed employment for whom he never worked for. They are trying to override 245k by going after fraud.

    It is pretty weak what the adjudicator is doing but still it is giving anxious moments to the original poster.

    UN
    You need to open an immigration advice center. Believe it or not you already have hundreds of clients that would readily leave their so called "lawyers" and move to you!! Think about it and remember to hire me when you are RICH :-)





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  • Whats even worse is that our son who is a US citizen will grow up in some other nation.
    Well.. time to move on.

    For a number of us this is the unfortunate truth, that our US citizen children will grow up in other countries and may never have the opportunity to form the strong bond with the land of their birth. If they return, they will have to undertake the hard process of acclimatization again.
    For those of us who have slightly older children like teens and such - its going to be a major issue as they will have spent considerable time in this system ( educational / social ).





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  • Asain-Americans seems to favor Obama overwhelmingly as per this survey. its interesting to read the survey - these immigrants who have gone thru the process themselves and might have friends/relatives in the process - didnt mention immigration as one of their important topic to decide on the vote. Understandably economy is the top topic but was expecting to see immigration atleast behind economy.
    http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=44144





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  • Arafat supported Sadam for a land for Palastine. He was promised Kuwait City, which can house 2 million people for them. Iraq can take the oil field of Kuwait. Sadam army driven away and killed thousands of kuwaitis and raped the women. The kids born during the period are housed in a govt. complex now with their mothers. I have seen that, when I was in a visit to Kuwait. Why the palastine people, any way most of the Arabs are nomards, want to stay in Israel, to keep fight. They can move out and end of the story.Israel come back and claim their fore father's property. If all muslims want to fight, do it and will go to hell.
    Immigration voice is for immigration matters. But most people in the forum are from India, china, pakistan, srilanka etc. So we can discuss matters from our countries. Here nobody from Palastine, or Israel is here. So no need for this discussion. Only terrorists, fundamentalists wants a discussion for these unrelated matters.
    Why no body discuss about 4000 tamils killed in Srilanks in 2008?. This numbers released by their govt. yesterday. Donot think tamils went to srilanka and fight for the land. They are there from thousand of years. Tamil language spoken in india also, so people think these people went there recently. The Singala people also from India, went there from Orissa. Their language is not speaking in India now. Look the script, it is similar to some indian, dravidan script and similar words.
    International media give much coverage for 1 or 2 people killed in Israel or Palastine. But thosands killed in Africa, other palces every day.

    My point is sivakasi rocket has the capability of killing 6 people and 7000 hamas rockets taken lesser than that. We are reacting as if they have wiped out the entire nation. How inferior these rockets are when compared to sivakasi rocket. I am not justifying the rocket attack, but pointing out their impact and the voilent reaction to that.

    Every nation has right to defend itself and its people. Isreal has the same rights to protect people. That doesn't mean they can go and kill innocent civilians including elderly person, women, children, shcool children and bombing schools, hospitals, detroying infrastructure etc. After killing school kids, just dont justify your killing by saying they use kids as human shield. Dont destroy and don't lie.





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  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VORdATj6s4w&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=zakir+naik+2008&emb=0&aq=1&oq=zakir+nai





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  • I definitely agree with the post above :). ..here is another article ..not the best bit vague but still good ..it came in just now on cnbc
    note the line marked in red ..it still depends on economy ...but predictions are that US economy may stagnate plus tight immi ..and you can see what will happen in future
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/31151346

    --------------------
    Home prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time.

    AP

    Even the federal government has projected price decreases through 2010. As a baseline, the stress tests recently performed on big banks included a total fall in housing prices of 41 percent from 2006 through 2010. Their “more adverse” forecast projected a drop of 48 percent — suggesting that important housing ratios, like price to rent, and price to construction cost — would fall to their lowest levels in 20 years.

    Such long, steady housing price declines seem to defy both common sense and the traditional laws of economics, which assume that people act rationally and that markets are efficient. Why would a sensible person watch the value of his home fall for years, only to sell for a big loss? Why not sell early in the cycle? If people acted as the efficient-market theory says they should, prices would come down right away, not gradually over years, and these cycles would be much shorter.

    But something is definitely different about real estate. Long declines do happen with some regularity. And despite the uptick last week in pending home sales and recent improvement in consumer confidence, we still appear to be in a continuing price decline.

    There are many historical examples. After the bursting of the Japanese housing bubble in 1991, land prices in Japan’s major cities fell every single year for 15 consecutive years.

    Why does this happen? One could easily believe that people are a little slower to sell their homes than, say, their stocks. But years slower?

    Several factors can explain the snail-like behavior of the real estate market. An important one is that sales of existing homes are mainly by people who are planning to buy other homes. So even if sellers think that home prices are in decline, most have no reason to hurry because they are not really leaving the market.

    Furthermore, few homeowners consider exiting the housing market for purely speculative reasons. First, many owners don’t have a speculator’s sense of urgency. And they don’t like shifting from being owners to renters, a process entailing lifestyle changes that can take years to effect.

    Among couples sharing a house, for example, any decision to sell and switch to a rental requires the assent of both partners. Even growing children, who may resent being shifted to another school district and placed in a rental apartment, are likely to have some veto power.

    In fact, most decisions to exit the market in favor of renting are not market-timing moves. Instead, they reflect the growing pressures of economic necessity. This may involve foreclosure or just difficulty paying bills, or gradual changes in opinion about how to live in an economic downturn.

    This dynamic helps to explain why, at a time of high unemployment, declines in home prices may be long-lasting and predictable.

    Imagine a young couple now renting an apartment. A few years ago, they were toying with the idea of buying a house, but seeing unemployment all around them and the turmoil in the housing market, they have changed their thinking: they have decided to remain renters. They may not revisit that decision for some years. It is settled in their minds for now.

    On the other hand, an elderly couple who during the boom were holding out against selling their home and moving to a continuing-care retirement community have decided that it’s finally the time to do so. It may take them a year or two to sort through a lifetime of belongings and prepare for the move, but they may never revisit their decision again.

    As a result, we will have a seller and no buyer, and there will be that much less demand relative to supply — and one more reason that prices may continue to fall, or stagnate, in 2010 or 2011.

    All of these people could be made to change their plans if a sharp improvement in the economy got their attention. The young couple could change their minds and decide to buy next year, and the elderly couple could decide to further postpone their selling. That would leave us with a buyer and no seller, providing an upward kick to the market price.

    For this reason, not all economists agree that home price declines are really predictable. Ray Fair, my colleague at Yale, for one, warns that any trend up or down may suddenly be reversed if there is an economic “regime change” — a shift big enough to make people change their thinking.

    But market changes that big don’t occur every day. And when they do, there is a coordination problem: people won’t all change their views about homeownership at once. Some will focus on recent price declines, which may seem to belie any improvement in the economy, reinforcing negative attitudes about the housing market.

    Even if there is a quick end to the recession, the housing market’s poor performance may linger. After the last home price boom, which ended about the time of the 1990-91 recession, home prices did not start moving upward, even incrementally, until 1997.





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  • On TV, when someone barks without any research backing it up, there is no one to counter him.

    Only few shows have a chance to counter, but again the anchor is so smart that he will make sure that his guest receives little time to attack the host.

    Guys the world is all about who is powerfull.

    It is time to go to gym.
    bye

    How the hell did he arrive at that figure ? the whole trouble with lou is he fabricates "research" such as the above statement with absolutely nothing to back it up. So much for the Harvard educated economist in him.





    I think much of India understands this perspective.

    I hope so.

    I agree with most of what you said. I just think that the expectation to shed the inertia built over two to three decades is a bit too much. It is going to take time, regardless of what anyone wants. Ironically, hostile relationships between India and Pakistan are only going to prolong the process.





    The 10 to 12% down south estimate might be true on the average. However, from where I stand now, in my county not just my zip code, house prices started to go up by 0.8% since January. It might still go down as I see fluctuations but I feel that it's stabilizing already.

    But only time can tell, right? All I'm doing right now is to satisfy myself that I made a right decision. Should I find out that it's a mistake, I should be truthful to myself that I did. There's no reason to lie to my ownself. JunRN, My comments are not about your individual situation but rather a broader analysis. Individual cases may be different based on location preference and affordability and other social factors.

    Historically, during the summer time, home prices will marginally increase as many people are expected to or will go around to buy homes. If you look at any listing which shows the historic prices such as trulia.. you will see that Builders are resorting to same tactics.. 20000 increase... some time around mid May 2009.... It will continue for couple of months.. but will not sustain in this situation. During the end of Fall into winter, it is going to come down and by Mid 2010.. based on popular economic forecast the prices will floor.

    Think about this, Every one knows that Home prices cannot go up in the midst of job losses and recession....unless there is Inflation, in which case, House prices will be the last thing to rise.. after all the consumer goods and services start to peak.. The media in this country is messing around with people's head with their opinion playing it over and over again as if they got it all figured out... to drive people to make stupid decisions and take up huge financial commitments..

    Lot of builders are already filing for bankruptcy and banks who lent them, end up owning the properties... What do they do with all those houses if no one can afford to buy them? .. they wreck the new houses... Yes.. This is going to be another round of collapse comming our way unless.. they reform immigration policies to allow more educated folks who can buy those homes..... I should say its happening... Let me give you an example..

    No Sale: Bank Wrecks New Houses
    A Texas bank is about done demolishing 16 new and partially built houses acquired in Southern California through foreclosure, figuring it was better to knock them down than to try selling them in the depressed housing market. Guaranty Bank of Austin is wrecking the structures to provide a "safe environment" for neighbors of the abandoned housing tract in Victorville, a high-desert city about 85 miles northeast of Los Angeles, a bank spokesman said.

    Victorville city officials said the bank told them the cost of finishing the development would exceed what they could sell the homes for. The bank also faced escalating city fines as vandals and squatters took over the sprawling housing project, leaving behind graffiti and drug paraphernalia, city officials said. "It's unfortunate," said George Duran, the city's code-enforcement manager. "We would have hoped for these houses to be finished. But it's up to the owner to see what is best for them." Home prices in San Bernardino County, where Victorville is located, have fallen 60% from the housing peak in 2006, according to DataQuick, a research firm. The median new-home price in Victorville is $265,990, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a housing-research firm. Homes in the Victorville development were priced at a range of $280,00 to $350,000 in early 2008, according to Hanley Wood.

    Demolishing vacant houses in economically troubled, inner-city neighborhoods is common. But the demolitions in Victorville show how the housing market is weighing on lenders even in once-booming suburbs. The houses were built by a California developer less than two years ago, according to city records. Guaranty Bank has significant exposure to construction loans to home builders. Last month, its parent company, Guaranty Financial Group, was issued a "cease and desist" order by the federal Office of Thrift Supervision, citing the firm's "unsafe and unsound banking practices."

    Many lenders, like Guaranty, have been foreclosing on home builders whose projects have gone bust. Regulators told Guaranty to come up with a plan to dispose of its foreclosed properties. But finding buyers is difficult, as home values remain under pressure. ... read the full story here.. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124148169574985359.html

    I believe after the correction, 2010 is going to be a better year for deals on homes..



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